Why Brexit carries the potential to fuck up the UK economy big time

Boris Johnson promised that “there will be no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK“.

Now we know that is just one of the many lies Boris spread widely as prime minister. It is clear that Brexiteers have exposed the UK economy to serious competitive disadvantages.

Here are some very simple and frightening facts about the UK economy

According to the Department for business, energy and industrial strategy in the UK 99,9% of all business in the UK economy are small and medium sized enterprises. (SME)

The vast majority of SMEs are often family-owned businesses with just a handful of employees. SMEs are the driving factor of the UK economy. It is not the big corporate industries but SMEs that generate the needed taxes for the UK government.

In 2016 82% of UK SME’s were exporting to Europe and before Brexit exports to the EU grew substantially. Brexit has put a stop to this. Why would European customers continue to buy British lamb or any other UK goods after purchasing UK products became:

1) more complicated because of customs procedures,
2) increased logistical and customs costs and
3) longer delivery times?

Think about this from an EU perspective: you have twenty-seven other countries where you can do your shopping, easy, unbureaucratic and fast. UK SMEs are now left without access to the largest market in the world and without substantial revenues that kept them afloat.

How delusional the UK government has become is evident in the discrepancy on export figures published by Gove and the UK road haulage association. Gove claims level of trade is almost back to normal pre-Brexit levels at 95%, yet the RHA states that exports to the EU have dramatically “reduced by as much as 68%” since January 2021.

Some businesses may be able to adapt, but it is highly unlikely that Rees-Mogg’s “happy British fish” will still be palatable to any buyer in any market after Raab’s plan of a “10-year long wait“. Those comments are an insult to the many UK SME business owners and their families that face losses, perhaps closure and unemployment.

Brexiteers are not just totally fucked-up liars. They are clearly incompetent and ignorant of basic and fundamental economic facts.

What can we expect now? UK businesses are amazing in their ability to adapt and innovate. I was part of the UK creative industries for more than a decade and have nothing but admiration for my colleagues working in Film, TV & media in the UK. I am still a proud member of BECTU, the British Entertainment, Cinematography, and Theatre Union.

82% of SMEs losing easy access to their largest export market is a huge blow. It is difficult to see how this kind of massive competitive disadvantage can simply be innovated away. The finance sector has lost its EU passporting rights, UK musicians and their tour organizers can no longer tour easily across Europe, UK based airlines will have restricted airspace access, the fishing industry is being devastated leaving behind angry unemployed fishermen misled by Brexit lies, and SMEs will have to reduce manufacturing and purchasing costs when exporting to the EU. Or stop trading with the EU altogether. The list goes on and on.

Cutting costs means lower wages, less profit for businesses, and fewer taxes for the government. And that means less government spending in the future or more government borrowing. This Brexiteer government is without a doubt on the road to a humongous economic cluster-fuck. Brexiteers can be expected to lie again and blame the EU for their self-inflicted misfortune.

In 10-year’s time, UK fish will be happier – they will have escaped being caught by UK fishermen who are either unemployed or found work elsewhere. In the meantime, EU buyers of UK goods will have switched to suppliers in any of the other twenty-seven EU countries. British lamb is good, but so is Spanish, French, and Dutch lamb. But according to Brexiteer logic that’s ok. It means more British lamb, happy British fish, and US chlorinated chicken for British people. After COVID the NHS will have to deal with a population of meat-eaters suffering from gout. The British public can look forward to having their gout treated in a privatized NHS supplied by US companies.

Brexiteers are not just lying through their teeth to their electorate. They actually believe their incredible drivel and bullshit. They got away with it, are supported by the toxic UK gutter press, and as a result have created such a terrible mess that they have to pretend that all of these problems are “teething issues“. It is fucking obvious that these are not just teething issues. After COVID that will become crystal clear. Brexit means 82% of SMEs now face serious competitive disadvantages and there is no doubt that many SME’s will not survive Brexit.

Somewhat of an anglophile I was shocked to see the racist and xenophobic monster invoked by populists like Farage raise its ugly head during Brexit. But I have hope that in a few year’s time the British voter will realize the mess Brexiteers have created for them, their businesses, families, and friends. No one in the UK will escape the consequences of this idiotic quest for “more control“. The reality is that many more people in the UK will feel even less in control in the years to come.

But then, when the UK economy will have hit rock-bottom, when British politicians and the electorate will have overcome their incredibly arrogant cakist approach, when they have no one else to blame but themselves, perhaps then the people in Britain will look back at Brexit with deep regret. If the UK still exists.

I think it is now very likely that Northern Ireland and Scotland will leave the sinking ship and join the EU as soon as they can. Even hard-core DUP nationalists will consider joining the Republic of Ireland when facing economic decline and losing their livelihood. Being British matters to them. Being Irish and have an income is better.

The EU Lisbon treaty also guarantees equality and human rights – so NI protestants have more of a chance of a good life, a job, and an income after joining the Irish republic. Irish SMEs can thrive trading within Europe while UK businesses will have to cut costs or close down.

The UK may be able to act a little faster on some issues. The EU consists of twenty-seven members and the democratic process means it takes a little longer to make decisions. But that’s a good thing in the long run.

Johnson claims that his vaccine programme is a Brexit dividend, the new and ‘nimble’ UK. It is not, it’s just another lie. The UK would have been free to design its covid vaccine programme any way it would have wished for as an EU member. So the lies continue.

The UK Japan FTA does not go beyond the trade deal the EU already made with Japan. Many of the promised global FTAs are not forthcoming. The US has put the brakes on an FTA under Biden. UK ministers are scrambling to make new FTAs with countries like Colombia amazing, yet their scope is mostly limited and the EU already has a better and more comprehensive FTA in place with those same countries. The UK government has reduced itself to discharging giant lumps of extra-ordinary bullshit, excrements rubbed into our faces during regular clown-shows disguised as press-conferences featuring Johnson, Frost, Raab, Rees-Mogg and the likes.

And let’s not forget that Boris is partially responsible for the staggering rise of COVID deaths in the UK when he “shook hands with people” in a hospital that had COVID patients. He was happy to brag that he “will continue to shake hands”. Shortly after he ended up in intensive care.

How can anyone still take this man seriously? There is nothing Churchill-like about him. Churchill is BoJo’s big historical hero. Instead, I will forever remember him as BoJo the clown – and even that is an insult to all the clowns out there who are actually funny.

History will not remember BoJo as the hero that took the UK out of a mythical EU dictatorship. He will be remembered as the UK prime minister who is responsible for the economic decline that followed when the UK left its biggest export market. He will be remembered for all his lies.

These people are seriously fucked-up. There is no doubt about that. And they are in charge. Let’s hope, they come to their senses sooner rather than later. And if they don’t then you should vote them out of government as soon as you can. I would.

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